The global burden of non-communicable
diseases (NCDs) is expected to increase in the coming decades as the total
global population rises along with the proportion of the population in older
age groups. The overall impact of chronic disease on population health in
developing countries will be substantial, particularly for conditions such as
hypertension and cardiovascular disease. Many low and middle income countries
are in the midst of an epidemiological transition, with the dominant cause of
mortality shifting from infectious disease to NCDs, and a rise in the average
age at death. In some cases, urbanisation and rapid economic development have
brought behavioural and lifestyle changes, leading to a rise in the prevalence
of NCD risk factors such as smoking, poor diet, and sedentary lifestyles. Globally,
NCDs are responsible for 66 percent of all mortality, and account for 54
percent of healthy life years lost, as measured by Disability-Adjusted Life
Years (DALYs).
There is a substantial amount of
existing evidence on the impact of NCDs on individual wellbeing, however there
is less evidence on the economic effect of chronic disease on society as a
whole. NCDs can impact on growth in a number of ways, including through reduced
reductions in effective labour supply (including productivity, early retirement,
and morality), diversion of productive savings towards medical expenditure, and
reduced government capacity to invest in infrastructure or education.
In a recent report for the World
Economic Forum (Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia, Bloom, D.
E., Chen S., McGovern M., Prettner K., Candeias V., Bernaert A. and Cristin S.,
World Economic Forum, 2015), we estimate the economic burden of NCDs in
Indonesia over the period 2012-2030 to be $ 4.47 trillion.
Summaries of the report are
available here:
Details of the methodology are
provided in our earlier paper:
Bloom, David E., et al. "The
macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India:
Estimates, projections, and comparisons." The Journal of the Economics
of Ageing 4 (2014): 100-111. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X14000206
See also our non-technical
summary:
Bloom, D.E., Cafiero-Fonseca,
E.T., McGovern, M.E., Prettner, K. (2014): "China and India's Decent into
Chronic Disease: Killing Themselves Slowly." The Milken Institute Review, Q2,
2014. http://assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Publication/MIReview/PDF/24-33MR62.pdf
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