Thursday, March 31, 2011

The Changing Faces of Ireland


Steve Song (formerly of Geary and now with George Fox University, Oregon), Merike Darmody (ESRI) and Naomi Tyrrell (Plymouth) are the editors of a new book on immigration in Ireland.


The Changing Faces of Ireland: Exploring the Lives of Immigrant and Ethnic Minority Children


“Before the economic boom of the 1990s, Ireland was known as a nation of emigrants. The past fifteen years, however, have seen the transformation of Ireland from a country of net emigration to one of net immigration, on a scale and at a pace unprecedented in comparative context. As a result, Irish society has become more diverse in terms of nationality, language, ethnicity and religious affiliation; and these changes are now clearly reflected in the composition of both primary and secondary schools, presenting these with challenges as well as opportunities. Despite the increased number of ethnically-diverse immigrant children and young people in the Ireland, currently there is a paucity of information about aspects of their lives in Ireland. This book is aimed at contributing to this gap in knowledge.

This edited collection will be of interest to researchers in the fields of migration studies, childhood studies, education studies, human geography, sociology, applied social studies, social work, health studies and psychology. It will also be a useful resource to educators, social workers, youth workers and community members working with (or preparing to work with) children with immigrant and ethnic minority backgrounds in Ireland.”


More details.

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Funding your IRA

Just in the interests of cultural understanding, I should probably explain to US readers of the blog why it is that Irish people start laughing when the US pension system is described to them. I have a document in front of me that tells me that funding an IRA is a great way to save for retirement. You can even choose between the traditional IRA or a new type of IRA. I think after reading this literature for so long the urge to laugh every time I hear people talk about this has died down but only a little bit. The IRA to most Americans is, of course, the Individual Retirement Accounts that many people use to save for retirement. For most Irish people the IRA (Irish Republican Army) is a republican paramilitary organisation mainly based in the North of Ireland. So with very little imagination, you can have a great laugh reading glossy brochures warning you what might happen if you don't pay your IRA contributions or helping you choose the IRA that is right for you or looking through the IRA websites of large financial companies. And all the time remembering that no matter how old you are it's never too late to start making your IRA contributions!

Almlund, Duckworth, Heckman and Kautz IZA Paper: Personality Psychology and Economics

Personality Psychology and EconomicsAuthor info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Almlund, Mathilde (almlund@uchicago.edu) (University of Chicago)
Duckworth, Angela Lee (duckwort@psych.upenn.edu) (University of Pennsylvania)
Heckman, James J. (jjh@uchicago.edu) (University of Chicago)
Kautz, Tim (tkautz@uchicago.edu) (University of Chicago)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Mathilde Almlund
James J. Heckman
Abstract

This paper explores the power of personality traits both as predictors and as causes of academic and economic success, health, and criminal activity. Measured personality is interpreted as a construct derived from an economic model of preferences, constraints, and information. Evidence is reviewed about the "situational specificity" of personality traits and preferences. An extreme version of the situationist view claims that there are no stable personality traits or preference parameters that persons carry across different situations. Those who hold this view claim that personality psychology has little relevance for economics. The biological and evolutionary origins of personality traits are explored. Personality measurement systems and relationships among the measures used by psychologists are examined. The predictive power of personality measures is compared with the predictive power of measures of cognition captured by IQ and achievement tests. For many outcomes, personality measures are just as predictive as cognitive measures, even after controlling for family background and cognition. Moreover, standard measures of cognition are heavily influenced by personality traits and incentives. Measured personality traits are positively correlated over the life cycle. However, they are not fixed and can be altered by experience and investment. Intervention studies, along with studies in biology and neuroscience, establish a causal basis for the observed effect of personality traits on economic and social outcomes. Personality traits are more malleable over the life cycle compared to cognition, which becomes highly rank stable around age 10. Interventions that change personality are promising avenues for addressing poverty and disadvantage.

The Science of Science Policy

I recently discovered the Science of Science Policy website, affiliated to the United States (U.S.) Office of Science and Technology Policy. The U.S. Congress established the Office of Science and Technology Policy in 1976 with a "broad mandate to advise the President... on the effects of science and technology on domestic and international affairs". The goal of the Science of Science Policy community is to "provide a scientifically rigorous and quantitative basis for science policy. The website provides a central location with news, information and research to help inform the Federal Government's science management decisions".

Closely related, the Science of Science and Innovation Policy (SciSIP) program was established at the U.S. National Science Foundation in 2005 in response to a call from John Marburger III for a "specialist scholarly community" to study the science of science policy. The program has three major goals: "advancing evidence-based science and innovation policy decision making; building a scientific community to study science and innovation policy; and leveraging the experience of other countries. A recent Science article highlights some of the issues addressed by SciSIP researchers."

Seventy-five SciSIP awards have been made to date. The awardees include economists, sociologists, political scientists, and psychologists as well as domain scientists. Some recent SciSIP awards (full abstracts available) which might be of interest to readers include Applied Visual Analytics for Economic Decision-Making and Universities, Innovation and Economic Growth. A report in the New York Times, from a couple of years ago, highlights a dataset that SciSIP funded jointly with the Kauffman Foundation, noting that it "tracks government-sponsored research for science and engineering and links it with government start-ups, patents, and other data. One goal of the research is to identify the characteristics of star innovators, scientists who are most effective in ushering research advances into the marketplace."

Public Sector Unions and Reforms

The current Becker-Posner debate on public sector unions may be of interest to some of the readers here.

I have a feeling unions take on a reflexive life force of their own and often don't accurately reflect the entire preferences of their members. Though I appreciate this may be dubbed rather sanguine it does seem to me that narrowly conceived matters of 'procedural fairness' dominate disputes, and even rulings; beyond reason. The recent rulings on regal privilege days enjoyed by civil servants (and central bankers) seems to demonstrated this.

In any event these issues are likely to become more prevalent once the 'fire' in the banking sector gets under control.

As a thought on this: are social partners able to sit down and discuss national issues other than pay increases and holiday benefits? If not we might question the whole process of partnership agreement that was engaged in over the past 15-20 years. The honest concept of social partnership should not be lost; the arguments for it are now probably as strong as ever. Its up to government to make them! and get all the partners back in the room, on a regular basis.

Shane O'Mara: Psychology and the Crash

TCD Neuroscience Professor, Shane O'Mara, sketches a number of potential cognitive biases that might have underlay the Irish economic crash in this article (from http://www.irishscience.wordpress.com). Testing the extent to which particular psychological mechanisms can cause macroeconomic fluctuations is a tricky excercise but the article provides much food for thought in terms of potential mechanisms.

Childhood Psychological Health and Later Adult Outcomes

James P Smith's Ulysses lecture addressed, among other things, the consequences of poor childhood psychological health for later adult outcomes. A new paper of his with colleagues in the UK addresses this issue using UK data and is published this week in PNAS (via Colm and IFS website).

Details on IFS Conference on Tax Simplification

From an email distributed by Bethan Landeg, events and conferences administrator at IFS

Joint TLRC / OTS Conference on Tax Simplification
09:15 - 13:15, 6 April 2011 (The Royal Society, London)

The Institute for Fiscal Studies' Tax Law Review Committee (TLRC) and the Office of Tax Simplification (OTS) are to hold a conference on 6th April 2011 to discuss the issues of tax simplification, the work of the OTS to date and the prospects for tax simplification in the future.

The conference will be chaired by Sir Alan Budd (TLRC Chairman). Registration will take place between 08:45 and 09:15 and we aim to conclude by 13:15, when lunch will be served.

Full details on how to book and provisional programme can be found on the IFS website: http://www.ifs.org.uk/events/664

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

DG Sanco and Behavioural Economics

The European Health and Consumer Directorate, in particular its consumer division, has been taking an active interest in behavioural economics, as reflected in two large conferences it has held on this area in the last couple of years (link here and here). A recent paper by Emmanuele Ciriole, economist with the division, is available here. A recent report commissioned by Sanco on retail investment services is available here

Sunday, March 27, 2011

The Conversation: Australian Research Discussion Site

The following link (via Colm) is an interesting new Australian site devoted to discussions of research emanating from the university world in Aus. Their basic statement of purpose is below. Interesting idea. My experience of being one of the less frequent contributors to irisheconomy.ie is that there is definitely a demand in Ireland to debate research coming out of the universities. A blog post I put up about one of Kevin's papers on higher education generated nearly 150 comments and, while the most popular post deal with developments in the macroeconomy, people do debate research papers when they are put up. The format of the website below is an interesting model.

The Conversation is an independent source of information, analysis and commentary from the university and research sector – written by acknowledged experts and delivered directly to the public. As professional journalists, we aim to make this wealth of knowledge and expertise accessible to all.

We aim to be a site you can trust. All published work will carry attribution of the authors’ expertise and, where appropriate, will disclose any potential conflicts of interest, and sources of funding. Where errors or misrepresentations occur, we will correct these promptly.

Initially, our Content Partners include the Australian Group of Eight universities (Adelaide, ANU, Melbourne, Monash, NSW, Queensland, Sydney, Western Australia) plus University of Technology Sydney, CSIRO, and the Australian Science Media Centre.

Sincere thanks go to our Founding Partners who have given funding support. Those universities are ANU, Monash, Melbourne, UTS, UWA, plus CSIRO. See also our list of Strategic Partners.

We are based in Melbourne, Australia, and wholly owned by The Conversation Media Trust, a not-for-profit company.

This is a beta site in development. We have a program of additional features and functionality that we will be introducing over the next few months. In the meantime, we'd be keen to hear back from you on any suggestions.

If you have any comments or suggestions about our service, we’d like to hear from you. Email us at: feedback@theconversation.edu.au

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Warriors Against Rational Choice: Gunshots as a solution to public goods problems?

Elinor Ostrom, the 2009 cowinner of the Nobel Prize, has a long body of work stressing the importance of communication for solving complex local public goods problems. In Ostrom's work, it is often low-level interactions between individuals that can make the difference in preserving common spaces and resources rather than top-down legislation and enforcement. I was thinking of her work while reading the story of these two chaps who shot at each other (hitting the target in one case) as an argument over a dog belonging to one of them defecating on the other's property became heated. Not exactly the type of smooth respectful local public goods bargaining that would be envisioned in these accounts.

Krueger and Muller: Unemployment and Wellbeing

Really important paper below by Krueger and Muller on unemployment and well-being. This type of research is vital to understand for those designing the new unemployment benefit and job assistance system in Ireland. It provides the most detailed account of how people actually feel and behave during the course of unemployment and offers the potential for the development of a humane, enabling and evidence-based unemployment policy.

Job Search, Emotional Well-Being and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data

Abstract
This paper presents findings from a survey of 6,025 unemployed workers who were interviewed every week for up to 24 weeks in the fall of 2009 and winter of 2010. Our main findings are: (1) the amount of time devoted to job search declines sharply over the spell of unemployment; (2) we do not observe a rise in job search or job finding around the time Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits expire; (3) unemployed workers express much dissatisfaction and unhappiness with their lives, and their unhappiness rises the longer they are unemployed; (4) the unemployed appear to be particular sad during episodes of job search, and they find job search more depressing over the course of unemployment; (5) in the Great Recession the exit rate from unemployment was low at all durations, and declined gradually over the spell of unemployment; and (6) the amount of time devoted to job search and the reservation wage help predict early exits from Unemployment Insurance (UI).

Friday, March 25, 2011

Employment Control Framework: the last word

It's been an interesting few weeks in Irish universities. Perhaps for the first time, everybody in the sector seems to be singing from the same hymn-sheet: the Employment Control Framework II is madness. That is certainly my opinion.
But on mature reflection (timpani roll...) is it so important? Well it depends on who - or where- you are? If you have a lab with 7 post-docs, 15 PhD students and a bunch of bottle washers it must be a bind. But for many people its probably pretty irrelevant. Most of the latter are in the humanities/arts/social sciences. Definitely not people involved in the SSTI/Smart economy global research strategy agenda framework.
At times like this, when a cool-headed, objective stance is necessary, one inevitably looks to one's own parish instead. In my own unit (School of Economics, UCD) I doubt if the ECF has much operational significance over all. So ultimately, that would be an empirical matter, as Father Jack might say and I don't see many of my colleagues keeling over in apoplexy. Well, no more than usual. Numbers aside, it might be argued that the ECF is bad because of the absurd micro-management that it represents. This is indeed worrying. Unless you are a manager, of course.
So cheer up folks, there are lots of worse things could happen to the universities and indeed these are happening anyway. To list these seems a bit of a whinge especially given the privations that people are experiencing.

Bill Clinton raises issue of suicide in Ireland

Liam won a Barrington medal for an essay on patterns of suicide, emotional distress and well being in Ireland over the course of the boom years. Bill Clinton gave a 15 minute speech for St Patrick's day in which he agrees that this is an issue that requires greater attention. The video can be streamed here.

The original Phillips Curve

The Phillips Curve is a justly famous idea in macroeconomics, showing the trade-off between unemployment and inflation.
A.W.H. Phillips was an engineer by training and constructed this hydraulic model of the economy to illustrate his ideas.


A tip of the hat to Mark Wynne for providing this.

ECF published

Via Ferdinand's website, the HEA have now officially published the ECF on their website. It is even a pdf document so this must mean that it is now official. It is amazing in a context where Irish leaders would rather die than give an inch on the Corporation Tax rate (a perhaps legitimate stance) that we have now completely voluntarily made it practically impossible for Irish universities to compete for external research grants in international competitions all with a simple stroke of a pen (or click of a pdf converter). I accept the view that those of us who are horrified by this need to do more than just express horror and actually come back with some alternatives but, having said that, noone really expects something like this. Its not as if we have documents ready to produce in the event that a Minister arrives one day with a can of petrol and threatens to burn down the college unless we can convince him, using sound economic arguments, why this would be a bad idea. I would ask that any IMF desk researcher that stumbles across this blog click on the clarifications and FAQs published by the HEA because, apparently, this is being rolled out to appease you guys. Not exactly the type of policy one would have traditionally associated with the IMF but these are interesting times.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Smile

In 1974 the Journal of Political Economy published an article on the "The economics of brushing teeth" by Alan Blinder. It was a light-hearted (or tongue-in-cheek if you pardon the pun) model of how much people should invest in brushing teeth because of the effect it had on their income. It some respects it was prophetic given the subsequent interest on "beauty" and the labour market. A somewhat more serious paper on "The economic value of teeth" appeared recently.
If you are not convinced that perceptions of beauty may depend on matters dental then this latest paper, The influence of visible dental caries on social judgements and overall facial attractiveness amongst undergraduates Karunakaran, T., Gilbert, D., Asimakopoulou, K., Newton, T. Journal of Dentistry, 39(3), 212 - 217 is for you. A great paper, that you should all read. And I don't say just that because, curiously, it cites a paper of mine.

Revealed Preferences in Voting Behaviour


From RTE: Moriarty Tribunal report - The main points


Data on the Tipp North constituency from ElectionsIreland.org:

General Election 2011 Party 1st Pref Votes Share Quota
Michael Lowry Snr
Independent 14,104 29.22% 1.17
Noel J Coonan
Fine Gael 11,425 23.67% 0.95
Alan Kelly
Labour 9,559 19.80% 0.79






General Election 2007
Michael Lowry Snr
Independent 12,919 29.08% 1.16
Noel J Coonan
Fine Gael 7,061 15.89% 0.64
Maire Hoctor
Fianna Fail 7,374 16.60% 0.66






General Election 2002
Michael Lowry Snr
Independent 10,400 25.39% 1.02
Maire Hoctor
Fianna Fail 8,949 21.84% 0.87
Michael Smith
Fianna Fail 8,526 20.81% 0.83






General Election 1997
Michael Lowry Snr
Independent 11,638 29.13% 1.17
Michael O'Kennedy
Fianna Fail 9,895 24.77% 0.99
Michael Smith Fianna Fail 6,999 17.52% 0.7

Ministers on ECF

The interview with Minister Quinn and Minister Bruton is here. Last one to leave please turn off the lights.

This is, for some reason, being thought of as a signal of a review of the third level embargo. Perhaps I am just a pessimist but the interview to me did not signal anything like that. It reaffirmed the false pretence that has led to a central state committee being granted absolute control at micro-level for every hire into the university system. I am sorry to keep posting on this and will find a more efficient way of going about this as there is no point in making this forum a casualty of this madness.

Addendum: Could I just be a little stronger here and say that this interview does not tell us anything that was not already present. Richard Bruton was clearly not trying to say anything substantive and looked like he was simply fobbing off the questions so he could get away and deal with other issues. Ruaidhri Quinn somewhat sarcastically indicated a willingness to listen to ideas from the "geniuses" in the university system and there are certainly people who will take him up on his offer but it hardly indicates that a review is taking place. I am, of course, aware that senior university figures are trying to deal with this but I think everybody who has been trying to draw attention to this important issue should continue to do so until something definitive and public is released. There is no evidence that any behind-closed-doors solution has been put together and the idea that people should stay quiet on an issue just because authority figures might be doing something good behind closed doors is not one that has served this country well in the last 10 years. People who care about autonomy in the universities and their vibrancy should look at this and form their own opinion and speak out if they think they should.

Behavioural economics of weight loss

This article in Scientific American discusses some behavioural economics approaches to weight loss.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Guest Posts

If anyone has suggestions for guest posts please send me an email.

Addendum: Posts should be consistent with the goals of the Strategy for Science Technology and Innovation.

Does Homework Matter?

IZA DP No. 5547

Ozkan Eren, Daniel J. Henderson:

Are We Wasting Our Children's Time by Giving Them More Homework?

(forthcoming in: Economics of Education Review)

Abstract:
Following an identification strategy that allows us to largely eliminate unobserved student and teacher traits, we examine the effect of homework on math, science, English and history test scores for eighth grade students in the United States. Noting that failure to control for these effects yields selection biases on the estimated effect of homework, we find that math homework has a large and statistically meaningful effect on math test scores throughout our sample. However, additional homework in science, English and history are shown to have little to no impact on their respective test scores.

http://ftp.iza.org/dp5547.pdf

James McInerney on Employment Control Framework

NUIM scientist James McInerney's comments on this are linked here. Text reproduced below. He is representative of a lot of people running research teams in Ireland that have been blown out of the water by this.

"I run a research group of somewhere between a half dozen and a dozen people. They are mostly post-graduate level students, but usually with a couple of post-doctoral researchers included in the group.

The funding for post-docs has come both from national funding sources - H.E.A. PRTLI, Science Foundation Ireland, etc. - and from international sources such as the EU “Marie Curie” programme for researcher mobility.

For the past decade, I have not had to think whether I should have a larger or smaller research group, what the mix of post-grad and post-doc scientists should be or whether or not this was out of line with anybody’s expectations of me. I focused on doing the science and delivering on the grants that were awarded to my group (these are always competitive awards, with rarely success rates for the applications usually less than one-in-five, sometimes less than 5% chance of success, such is the level to which they are subscribed). Just trying to do the science is not an easy job, I can assure you. However, this is the job I signed up for and so far, thankfully, things have gone fine. You can see some of the results here - http://bioinf.nuim.ie/

This is a moderately healthy system. Grants are awarded based on the quality of the applicant, the quality of the application and the amount of available funding. In 2010, new national funding was almost non-existent, for instance. In other years it was almost as good as in the UK.

However, the Employment Control Framework (ECF) has really made a mess of it all.

The ECF has now rolled my post-doctoral researchers in with permanent staff members so that they are now “core staff” of the university. This is despite the fact that they are never going to be made permanent. They come to Ireland (most have been from outside Ireland), work here for a few years, bring their new ideas from abroad, bring their experience of different systems of working, bring their enthusiasm, bring their software code and so forth and they carry out research that benefits Ireland and then they leave.

Sometimes they participate in teaching our undergrads and they can bring some very practical skills into the classroom.

However, now that they are being rolled in with the rest of the staff as core staff and now that there is a cap on the numbers of core staff that we can have, all this is going to stop.

Dead.

In addition to this, we are not replacing the retiring staff (while offering staff a lot of incentives to retire) and so when you combine the cap on numbers with the pressing need to retain an ability to deliver lectures, I am now facing a situation where I will be told I cannot take on post-doctoral researchers.

I might not be able to bring in new blood from outside the country (EU Marie Curie grants are explicitly for people from outside Ireland to locate here).

I might not be able to employ our own PhD graduates.

I won’t be able to produce as much research.

I won’t be able to accept grants from the EU or The Wellcome Trust or their ilk, who offer my university a lot of overheads and also enhance the reputation of our university by awarding grants to us.

I won’t be able to guarantee to a collaborator that I will be able to employ staff if we get a joint award.

The ECF is a blunt instrument. It addresses the issue of reducing the cost of the third level sector, but it is the most cack-handed approach imaginable.

If the government wants the universities to employ fewer staff so that it pays less money, then that is an acceptable thing to want - particularly in a recession. However, surely the better thing to do is to give the universities their block grant and say “manage that in the best way that you can”.

Bill Cullen is the businessman on “The Apprentice”. He runs a car sales organisation. Do you think he would think it was sensible for a bank to loan him money and tell him to reduce costs and then present him with a plan that allowed him to have a sales garage, to have cars but no sales people?

The ECF needs to be abolished and something more sensible replacing it. The financial cost to the exchequer can be the same, but if it is done properly, then we can save a bit of our scientific reputation, our international standing, our attractiveness as a place to do science, our knowledge and our ability to collaborate internationally."

Medical card holders face charges at GP

The Irish Medical Organisation (IMO) has advised GPs that “routine blood tests, Warfarin monitoring, 24-hour blood pressure monitoring, and women’s and men’s health clinics”, once provided free to medical card holders, are not covered under GPs’ General Medical Services (GMS) contract with the Health Service Executive.


The IMO have instructed that it is up to GPs “whether they wish to charge or how they wish to charge ... If a GP decides to charge, it’s important that the patient is made aware that these services are available free from a hospital”


The HSE say: “The routine taking of blood samples from patients forms part of the normal and necessary treatment of patients undertaken by a GP and as such would normally be covered under the Medical Card Scheme, meaning that the card holder should not be charged”


An estimated 1.85 million people have the GMS card this year. Payments to GPs for the scheme are made through a wide range of fees and payments - as many as 50 different capitation rates apply based on age, gender, and 'distance from the surgery' (up to a maximum of €896.07 for persons aged 70 and over residing in a private nursing home) and more than seven additional payments (including a practice nurse allowance). The complexity of the system is such that nobody in the HSE or Department of Health can calculate an average cost figure. This answer to a Dail question on the issue five months ago makes interesting reading - it is suggested that average cost figures were not useful for policy; no alternative measure was suggested. The total cost of the GMS scheme this year is estimated at €2bn.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Revenue Internships

See notice below. Would definitely recommend this for people looking for excellent (albeit not well paid) work experience applying statistics and economics in a policy environment.


Revenue is looking for recent graduates with economic or statistical skills to work in the Research and Analytics' Branch for 6 months under the FAS work placement programme.

Applications forms are available on the Revenue website:
http://www.revenue.ie/en/about/careers/fas-work-placement/index.html
The jobs are advertised on the FAS website: http://jobseeker.fas.ie/
(search for "economics research assistant" or "statistics research
assistant").

The deadline for the economics position is the 8th of April 2011 and the
deadline for the statistics position is the 15th April 2011.

Contact: Keith Walsh (keithw@revenue.ie; 01 4251417)

Next generation Ireland

This book looks interesting and has a nice cover: Next Generation Ireland (editors Ed Burke, Ronan Lyons) tackles the essential challenges confronting Irish politics and society, the economy, the environment, and Ireland’s relationship with the rest of the world. It brings together ten young Irish men and women to answer the fundamental question, 'What now?'
Ireland in the early 2010s stands at a crossroads. The ongoing change and crisis in institutions that once had our trust force us to ask, ‘What now?’
Next Generation Ireland brings together ten young Irish men and women to answer this very question. All are under forty and are emerging experts in their chosen fields. They have come together because they believe that, in this time of questioning, there exists a huge opportunity for the next generation to build the Ireland of the 2020s and 2030s.
The book tackles the essential challenges confronting Irish politics and society, the economy, the environment, and Ireland’s relationship with the rest of the world. Each writer proposes transformative policies in their respective areas that will renew and sustain the Irish state in the coming decades.
Urging reform and policy transformation, Next Generation Ireland marks the beginning of an interesting conversation. Do you wish to participate?

Contributors include: Eoin O’Malley, Michael Courtney, Stephen Kinsella, Michael King, Joseph Curtin, Aoibhín de Búrca, Neil Sands and Nicola White.

Von Prondzynski on ECF

Irish Times comment section today - text below.

FERDINAND VON PRONDZYNSKI

LEFTFIELD: If the Government insists that the civil service micro-manages our colleges, it will destroy third level education

AS EVERYONE knows, these are difficult times, and we are all having to make new sacrifices. Universities have been no exception, and over the past few years, their funding has dropped while student numbers have soared. Staff have seen their workloads increase, while their pay has been cut. Mostly, the colleges have taken this on the chin, though I won’t pretend that morale is high.

Then along comes something absolutely and totally crazy, something mindlessly destructive and completely counter- productive, even in terms of what it is supposed to achieve.

I am talking about the Orwellian-sounding Employment Control Framework (ECF), a Soviet Union-style centralised bureaucratic framework for stifling all initiative and for civil service micro-management of individual colleges. I have been trawling my dictionary of insults to see if I can come up with an adjective that adequately describes this idiocy, and I have found nothing to express it.

Let me try to explain. In 2008 the Government, alarmed by the deterioration in the public finances, imposed a recruitment and promotions embargo in the public service. The higher education institutions were told that this would also apply to them, but after some protests the Government agreed that a special framework would be introduced for third level. And this is where the ECF emerged. Its first draft envisaged Higher Education Authority (HEA) approval for every appointment, and that there would be some rules applying to this: no administrative or support staff vacancies could be considered for replacement, and only one in three academic positions becoming vacant could be filled.

The Irish Universities Association – representing the seven university presidents – fought hard on this, pointing out that if this were to be applied, universities would quickly grind to a halt as the expertise needed to run a number of courses and conduct research programmes would disappear. Eventually, a revised ECF emerged under which universities were given staffing reduction targets of 6 per cent between December 2008 and December 2010. Thankfully, externally funded posts were not covered. In addition, the scheme prohibited all promotions and permitted only fixed-term appointments for those vacancies that could be filled (including externally-funded ones), thereby creating the casualisation of academic employment and the ending of career development.

Nevertheless, the universities worked with the scheme, and by December 2010 all had met the staffing reduction targets. By the end of 2010, signals were sent that a new version of the ECF might emerge. Now along comes the ECF mark II, and if you didn’t like the first one, you were going to hate the second testosterone-pumped one.

Under this, the framework is to continue until 2014 at least, with further staffing reductions and a continuing ban on promotions. In addition, non-exchequer funded posts are now also covered, and a whole new set of bureaucratic conditions is being imposed.

Indeed, the problem has become such that I know of one team of researchers who now feel obliged to return some external funding for a project because they will be unable to hire the staff to conduct it (which would have been at no cost to the taxpayer).

The HEA, clearly taken aback by loud cries of anger from the third-level sector, has responded by suggesting that the new ECF is not as bad as has been made out. The HEA indicated that the framework would not prevent the hiring of staff not funded by the State and that the HEA would not impose fines for non-compliance. In the meantime, we know from a leaked memo from the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Innovation that other parts of Government were just as taken aback and alarmed as the third-level sector was. Joined up Government? Not a bit.

To be quite clear, nobody denies that universities must accept that the public funding crisis also affects them. The colleges themselves understand that they must live within their means, and that if public funding is cut they will have to make savings.

What has angered the sector is the programme of micro- management of legally autonomous institutions, and of a crazed bureaucracy that is now stifling innovation and enterprise, as well as undermining staff morale. It is doing completely unnecessary damage to universities, just when these are needed to help produce investment and job creation. And it is doing all this without even saving any money for the taxpayer.

It cannot be said loudly enough. This scheme is mad. It is senseless and destructive. It harms Ireland’s recovery. And it must be reversed as a matter of absolute priority.

Rodrik: The Globalization Paradox

Recently released book by Dani Rodrik - "The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the Global Economy". Makes the case for a more robust form of globalisation where nation states play a larger role in acting as a taming force. The introduction begins with an unusually humble and frank account of how he had missed financial system vulnerabilities that were impending when writing his previous books. Continues with an argument that free trade fundamentalism is a product of social norm processes and cognitive limitations among economists. Provides a history of globalisation and argues that opening trade works best in the context of intelligent government institutions to manage it. He makes a case for developing a form of global capitalism where: markets are more deeply embedded in systems of governance, the nation state is a primary actor; there is heterogeneity in economic development models depending on the culture, endowments and preferences of nations; where countries have the right to protect their own institutions in cases where there is a clash with the imperatives of free trade; where countries do not have the right to impose institutions on others; where international institutions set rules of interaction between countries; and where democracies are given more rights under international institutions than non-democracies.

Recommended reading. Includes a chapter on potential downsides of financial innovation and capital inflows that will have resonance for people in Ireland. The narrative has not fully formed yet here but one is emerging of a country that progressed far with a model of state-managed opening up of trade and used this as a very progressive force but failed to develop a model for dealing with the large risks associated with capital inflows into domestic financial institutions. Furthermore the failure of the EU monetary project to develop a coordinated response to this has left us in a position where the Irish state is now being bailed out so that it, in turn, can bail out financial institutions that poured money into a construction bubble in a process Karl Whelan has called "No bondholder left behind". As excited as free market fundamentalists used to become when looking at Ireland, the experience of financial globalisation here should I hope lead them to cast a cold eye on us and have a read of Rodrik for ideas toward a more robust model.

From a behavioural perspective, the book has left me with some deep questions as to why it is people feel parts of nations rather than world citizens and the ethical and practical implications of this. Most people in Ireland feel themselves to be Irish, with some considering themselves European and some further considering themselves world citizens. If I had to choose, I actually feel affinity with the idea of being a "global Irish" (though aware that this concept is still nebulous to some extent) and increasingly see a merit in the idea of Ireland as a migrant country where there is a possibility of a constructive cross-national identity that is bridging and makes sense. My own identity aside, the idea of national identity as a legitimate constraint on policy is one aspect of Rodrik's book that is particularly thought-provoking and of interest to people working on psychological dimensions of economic activity.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Happiness and work in Ireland

One of the results that emerged from the well known Whitehall studies, considered landmark studies in social epidemiology which looked at British civil servants, is that where people come in an organization has an important effect on people's health. People at the bottom of the rung had poorer health. One explanation is that such people have less control of their circumstances and have more stress as a result.
The European Social Survey asks individuals how much control they have over how their daily work is organized (on a scale of 0 to 10). As an alternative to looking at health, one could also consider subjective well-being: in the data happiness is also ranked on a scale of 0 to 10.
The graph plots the mean of the happiness variable against how much control individuals say they have, using the data for Ireland. This is purely a bivariate comparison.
So there is a correlation with those at the top recording greater happiness but the gradient seems fairly gentle to me. More importantly, those at the bottom of the ladder seem happier than those immediately above them. So it may be that those at the bottom just don't worry and get on with things. A multivariate analysis would be needed to consider this more throughly.
If one looks at subjective general health with the same data, the relationship is rather more monotonic with those at the top having better health.

The economics of hope

The degree of hopelessness surrounding our economy generally and many people's private circumstances is probably much higher than normal. There appears to be an upward spike in suicide, for example. So a little economic theory is useful:

Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter Here?
Rowena Pecchenino (NUI Maynooth)
Hope plays an important role in all individuals’ lives both today and in the future. While hope and hopelessness are important concepts and the subjects of much theorizing in psychology, theology, philosophy, political science, nursing, as well as in literature and the arts, it is absent from economics. This silence on hope is notable since hope is fundamentally at the centre of choice, especially intertemporal choice, which is at the centre of economic analysis. To place hope at the centre of intertemporal choice, it is important to clearly define what hope is and what it is not. What hope is not is constant. Hope is not optimism; hope is not unfounded dreams divorced from reality; hope is not irrational. I distil what hope is from its characterization in a number of different disciplines. A comparison of characterizations identifies a number of commonalities and common definitions. Using the derived set of definitions , I incorporate hope into economic analysis, consider what implications hope has for the modelling of choice and for economic behaviour, and discuss whether hope is implicitly imbedded in or has been abandoned, to our eternal cost, by economics.