I don't know much about macroeconomics but I was brought up to believe that inflation is a bad thing. However given the rapid deflation that the Irish economy is experiencing a little inflation might be something to be celebrated at this stage. This news broadcast from an unnamed Mediterranean country shows us how:
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Suicide and employment status during Ireland’s Celtic Tiger economy
A recent publication in the European Journal of Public Health might be of interest to you. This research examines CSO data from 1996 to 2006 and finds that unemployment status is associated with a two to three-fold increased risk of suicide for men and a four to six-fold increased risk for women. This research also indicates that the highest male suicide rate was in the 15-34-year-olds, and unemployment was the stronger risk factor for suicide in men aged 35-54.
Irish Unemployment
Whilst today's new GDP figures will officially take us out of recession, our GNP growth (-0.5) and new, all-time-high, unemployment figures (13.4%) are stark proof of a so called "jobless recovery".
To me, the Irish economy is looking a lot like a ravaged rose garden; first attacked by an infection of black-spot and then plowed by a herd of bison. The chief gardener responded with sense; mends the fence, treats the infection, and prunes whats left back to strength. Now, afterwards, there are no green-shoots and all the gardener can think of is more pruning. I believe today's figures suggest that it's time we put the pruning scissors aside and consider adding some required nitrogen and phosphorus to the soil, and maybe investing in some new plants.
It is also worth noting that our unemployment rate is now almost double that of N.Ireland.
Handedness & earnings
In this interview today on WEOL AM 930 (Cleveland, OH) I discuss "The economic consequences of being left-handed: some sinister results", co-authored with Vincent O Sullivan, Journal of Human Resources (2006), XLII (2), 353-374
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
A Few Links: 29/6/2010
1. The new (eye-tracking) Facebook Study from Mulley Communications and National College of Ireland: 71% of users looked at adverts on their Profile pages, 31% of users looked at adverts on the News Feed page (homepage).
2. The Enterprise Ireland Innovation Voucher Initiative for small limited companies: the next closing date is 31st October 2010.
3. Shakespeare and the Neuroeconomics of Self-Control
4. Bloomberg Businessweek: Obama Adopts Behavioral Economics
5. The HM Treasury Spending Challenge: an open invitation for public sector workers to contribute to the UK government’s Spending Review.
6. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is embarking on a study into deceptive marketing.
7. Insight Central: Tips for Ordering Survey Questions Effectively
8. Rich datasets require statistical sophistication: Some readers will be familiar with UCD (and formerly Geary) researcher Dr. Ken McKenzie. The link is to his new blog (aheadinbusiness.net); it's about about "using evidence to understand how people think and act in markets and at workplaces."
9. Liam recently mentioned a new paper by Heckman and colleagues about the GED, a high-school diploma equivalent offered as a second chance to people who have dropped out of regular-track high-school in the United States. In the video below, Homer Simpson sees fit to burn his GED sheepskin once he becomes a "college-man". I haven't seen the episode; perhaps somebody could elaborate?
2. The Enterprise Ireland Innovation Voucher Initiative for small limited companies: the next closing date is 31st October 2010.
3. Shakespeare and the Neuroeconomics of Self-Control
4. Bloomberg Businessweek: Obama Adopts Behavioral Economics
5. The HM Treasury Spending Challenge: an open invitation for public sector workers to contribute to the UK government’s Spending Review.
6. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is embarking on a study into deceptive marketing.
7. Insight Central: Tips for Ordering Survey Questions Effectively
8. Rich datasets require statistical sophistication: Some readers will be familiar with UCD (and formerly Geary) researcher Dr. Ken McKenzie. The link is to his new blog (aheadinbusiness.net); it's about about "using evidence to understand how people think and act in markets and at workplaces."
9. Liam recently mentioned a new paper by Heckman and colleagues about the GED, a high-school diploma equivalent offered as a second chance to people who have dropped out of regular-track high-school in the United States. In the video below, Homer Simpson sees fit to burn his GED sheepskin once he becomes a "college-man". I haven't seen the episode; perhaps somebody could elaborate?
Handedness & drinking behaviour
This paper has been published on-line in the British Journal of Health Psychology, print version to follow.
Design: A large multi-country data set of nationally representative samples of the non-institutional population aged 50 years and older from 12 European countries was used (N=27,428). Methods Logistic regression was used to model the frequency with which individuals self-report the frequency of alcohol consumption. A series of models with differing numbers of potential confounders are estimated. The predictors of frequent and infrequent drinking are investigated separately.
Results: After controlling for a number of confounders it is shown that left-handers do drink more often. However, this is due to them being less likely to drink rarely (less than once a month) or not at all.
Conclusions: The evidence suggests that while there is an association between left-handedness and frequency of alcohol consumption there is no reason to believe that it is associated with excessive alcohol consumption or risky drinking.
Handedness and drinking behaviour
Kevin Denny
Objectives: A number of papers have investigated whether there is an association between handedness and alcohol consumption hypothesizing that alcoholism may be a consequence of atypical cerebral lateralization or a response to the stress involved in being a minority in a right-handed world. Research to date has mostly used small clinical samples, some without a comparison group. This paper exams this issue using a large population-based random sample. Kevin Denny
Design: A large multi-country data set of nationally representative samples of the non-institutional population aged 50 years and older from 12 European countries was used (N=27,428). Methods Logistic regression was used to model the frequency with which individuals self-report the frequency of alcohol consumption. A series of models with differing numbers of potential confounders are estimated. The predictors of frequent and infrequent drinking are investigated separately.
Results: After controlling for a number of confounders it is shown that left-handers do drink more often. However, this is due to them being less likely to drink rarely (less than once a month) or not at all.
Conclusions: The evidence suggests that while there is an association between left-handedness and frequency of alcohol consumption there is no reason to believe that it is associated with excessive alcohol consumption or risky drinking.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Fulbright awards to Geary researchers.
Congratulations to Geary's Liam Delaney & David Comerford on their recent Fulbright awards. David Comerford has been awarded a Fulbright Award to undertake research as part of his PhD in the area of consumer judgment and decision making at Duke University, North Carolina. Dr Liam Delaney, a lecturer in the UCD School of Economics and Deputy Director of the UCD Geary Institute has been awarded a Fulbright Award to undertake research at Princeton University in the area of historical and policy determinants of Irish health and well being.
Aldrich - Econometrics and Psychometrics– Rivers out of Biometry
Econometrics and Psychometrics– Rivers out of Biometry
Date: 2010-06-01
By: Aldrich, John
URL: link here
At the beginning of the 20th century economists and psychologists began to use the statistical methods developed by the English biometricians. This paper sketches the development of psychometrics and econometrics out of biometry and makes some comparisons between the three fields. The period covered is 1895-1925.
Keywords; History of econometrics, statistics, biometry, factor analysis, path analysis.
JEL Classification: B816.
Date: 2010-06-01
By: Aldrich, John
URL: link here
At the beginning of the 20th century economists and psychologists began to use the statistical methods developed by the English biometricians. This paper sketches the development of psychometrics and econometrics out of biometry and makes some comparisons between the three fields. The period covered is 1895-1925.
Keywords; History of econometrics, statistics, biometry, factor analysis, path analysis.
JEL Classification: B816.
Reporting Effects on the Child SES Health Gradient
Is there an Income Gradient in Child Health? It depends whom you ask
Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics| Author Info |
Carol Propper
Stephen E. Pudney
Michael A. Shields (carol.propper@bristol.ac.uk)
Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):
| Abstract |
A large literature uses parental evaluations of child health status to provide evidence on the socioeconomic determinants of health. If how parents perceive health questions differs by income or education level, then estimates of the socioeconomic gradient are likely to be biased and potentially misleading. In this paper we examine this issue. We directly compare child mental health evaluations from parents, teachers, children and psychiatrists for mental health problems, test whether these differences are systematically related to observable child and parent characteristics, and examine the implications of the different reports for the estimated income gradient. We find that respondents frequently evaluate children differently and while the sign of the income gradient is in the same direction across respondents, systematic differences in evaluations mean that the estimated magnitude and significance of the health-income gradient is highly dependent upon the choice of respondent and the measure of child health.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Identifying Peer Effects Through Variance Restrictions
Kevin’s post on peer effects mentioned the problem of identification, an example of a less standard approach to this issue is the paper by Graham (IDENTIFYING SOCIAL INTERACTIONS THROUGH CONDITIONAL VARIANCE RESTRICTIONS, BRYAN S. GRAHAM, Econometrica, Vol.76, No. 3 (May, 2008), 643–660), which uses variance restrictions to argue that peer effects were important for participants in the Tennessee STAR class size experiment. The intuition is described below (from p.4):
“The application examines the effect of peer quality on kindergarten achievement using data from the Tennessee class size reduction experiment Project STAR. Classrooms of two sizes are observed in the data set: small and large. Students and teachers within participating schools were randomly assigned to one of the two types of classrooms. In large classrooms, clusters of talented students are typically offset by corresponding clusters of below average students, resulting in little variation in mean student ability. In small classrooms, however, groups composed of mostly above or below average students are more frequently observed, generating greater variation in mean ability. As a result, the variance of peer quality (as measured by average student ability in a classroom) is greater across the set of small than it is across the set of large classrooms. In contrast to peer quality, random assignment ensures that the distribution of teacher characteristics is similar across the two types of classrooms. Under some additional restrictions on the educational production function, discussed in detail below, class type provides a plausible source of exogenous variation in the variance of peer quality”.
“The application examines the effect of peer quality on kindergarten achievement using data from the Tennessee class size reduction experiment Project STAR. Classrooms of two sizes are observed in the data set: small and large. Students and teachers within participating schools were randomly assigned to one of the two types of classrooms. In large classrooms, clusters of talented students are typically offset by corresponding clusters of below average students, resulting in little variation in mean student ability. In small classrooms, however, groups composed of mostly above or below average students are more frequently observed, generating greater variation in mean ability. As a result, the variance of peer quality (as measured by average student ability in a classroom) is greater across the set of small than it is across the set of large classrooms. In contrast to peer quality, random assignment ensures that the distribution of teacher characteristics is similar across the two types of classrooms. Under some additional restrictions on the educational production function, discussed in detail below, class type provides a plausible source of exogenous variation in the variance of peer quality”.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Weekend Links June 25th
1. Meet the psychic Octopus - He has gotten the three German world cup games right so far, two of which were obvious and also predicted 4 of the 6 games in a previous tournament. He is now famous, a cautionary tale again to those insisting on the rationality assumption.
2. Via Colm, the June 2010 edition of the Journal of Economic Literature focuses on regression discontinuity designs and treatment effects
3. Heckman and colleagues review what is known on the GED, a high-school diploma equivalent offered as a second chance to people who have dropped out of regular-track high-school
4. List and Rasul NBER paper on experiments in labour economics
5. Programme for the RAND 2010 Mini-Medical Summer School for Social Scientists
6. The Irish Government have launched the "National Solidarity Bond". The brochure is here. The behavioural aspects of this will be interesting to tease out. Without going into full details, the basic annual interest rate is 1 per cent, which is small. But a series of tax free bonuses accrue, with the main punchline being a state-guaranteed 50 per cent tax-free return after 10 years. Clearly, one of the ideas is to link savings to patriotism, which is something for which I do not know of much evidence. The marketing campaign has focused very much on creating a clear and simple image of getting a lump sum in ten years time to do something durable with. Let's talk more about this later.
7. Meier and Sprenger IZA paper on the stability of time preferences
2. Via Colm, the June 2010 edition of the Journal of Economic Literature focuses on regression discontinuity designs and treatment effects
3. Heckman and colleagues review what is known on the GED, a high-school diploma equivalent offered as a second chance to people who have dropped out of regular-track high-school
4. List and Rasul NBER paper on experiments in labour economics
5. Programme for the RAND 2010 Mini-Medical Summer School for Social Scientists
6. The Irish Government have launched the "National Solidarity Bond". The brochure is here. The behavioural aspects of this will be interesting to tease out. Without going into full details, the basic annual interest rate is 1 per cent, which is small. But a series of tax free bonuses accrue, with the main punchline being a state-guaranteed 50 per cent tax-free return after 10 years. Clearly, one of the ideas is to link savings to patriotism, which is something for which I do not know of much evidence. The marketing campaign has focused very much on creating a clear and simple image of getting a lump sum in ten years time to do something durable with. Let's talk more about this later.
7. Meier and Sprenger IZA paper on the stability of time preferences
Meta-scam
I just received an email from Mr Ban Ki-Moon. As you might expect of the holder of the world's most prestigious diplomatic position, he was very gentlemanly in his greeting: "How are you today?" he opens, "Hope all is well with you and your family?"
Having put me at ease with his folksy turn of phrase, the secretary general then proceeds to the big news. He tells me that he is writing "to all the people that have been scammed in any part of the world. The UNITED NATIONS have agreed to compensate them with the sum of US$500,000.00"!
Prof. Stephen Lea of the University of Exeter has examined the characteristics of scams and the people who fall for them. He finds that previous victims are consistently more likely to show interest in responding to a scam. It seems Mr. Ban Ki-Moon is paying attention to this research.
Having put me at ease with his folksy turn of phrase, the secretary general then proceeds to the big news. He tells me that he is writing "to all the people that have been scammed in any part of the world. The UNITED NATIONS have agreed to compensate them with the sum of US$500,000.00"!
Prof. Stephen Lea of the University of Exeter has examined the characteristics of scams and the people who fall for them. He finds that previous victims are consistently more likely to show interest in responding to a scam. It seems Mr. Ban Ki-Moon is paying attention to this research.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Evidence and Policy special issue
'Evidence and Policy' have a special issue and the editorial, 'Evidence and policy in six European countries: diverse approaches and common challenges' is available free online.
VOX: The long term impact of life before birth
The always excellent VOX has this article by Douglas Almond and Janet Currie
The long-term effects of early childhood development are of increasing interest. This column outlines a recent literature review suggesting that interventions should target pregnant women as well as young children. But while events before birth can have a lasting impact, this does not mean that later efforts are doomed to fail.
Peer effects
"Tell me your friends and I will tell you who you are" my primary school teacher Mr Moriarty used to advise us. This could have simply been a statement about correlation but I think implicitly he was thinking of a treatment effects model: he wanted us to to stay away from the gurriers in the class (of whom there were some spectacular examples) as he thought they would lead us into bad ways. I actually didn't need any advice to avoid the thugs.
Anyway, this basic notion of the importance of peer effects is pervasive and in the academic literature goes back to the famous Coleman report in 1966. It spawned a big empirical literature which seems to have shown that, in education at least, peer effects are small and estimates quite fragile. Recent theoretical developments, by people such as Durlauf & Benabou, have highlighted the potential importance of such interactions.
A big problem in such models is identification: it is not a simple matter to identify parameters of interest. This is especially true if you want to distinguish between endogenous peer effects (when my outcome depends on your outcome) as well as contextual effects (when my outcome depends on your characteristics as well as my own). Identifying these separate effects is important if one wants the estimates to be useful for policy purposes since it is essential to know what is causing the peer effect. Endogenous membership (sorting into peer groups) as well as standard correlated ubobservables makes these quite tricky to estimate.
A really good outline of the issues involved is the paper by Robert Moffitt . A recent application in this area is a paper by Devereux et al.
Anyway, this basic notion of the importance of peer effects is pervasive and in the academic literature goes back to the famous Coleman report in 1966. It spawned a big empirical literature which seems to have shown that, in education at least, peer effects are small and estimates quite fragile. Recent theoretical developments, by people such as Durlauf & Benabou, have highlighted the potential importance of such interactions.
A big problem in such models is identification: it is not a simple matter to identify parameters of interest. This is especially true if you want to distinguish between endogenous peer effects (when my outcome depends on your outcome) as well as contextual effects (when my outcome depends on your characteristics as well as my own). Identifying these separate effects is important if one wants the estimates to be useful for policy purposes since it is essential to know what is causing the peer effect. Endogenous membership (sorting into peer groups) as well as standard correlated ubobservables makes these quite tricky to estimate.
A really good outline of the issues involved is the paper by Robert Moffitt . A recent application in this area is a paper by Devereux et al.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Journal of Economic Methodology: Neuroeconomics Special Issue
Fascinating special issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology - link here
ACCESSTILDA Design Report
Those interested in aging research should look at the Design Report for the TILDA study in Trinity. This lays out the questions they are asking in the study and how these can be compared to other data-sets such as SHARE.
Irish Society of New Economists: Deadline June 30th
Abstracts are due by June 30th for the 7th annual meeting of the Irish Society of New Economists (ISNE). The meeting will take place in TCD on 24 September, 2010. More details are available on the conference website.
Causal inference in econometrics: structure vs. program evaluation
Those interested in the JEP symposium linked below but would like something a bit more technical should look at Heckman's recent NBER paper:
Building Bridges Between Structural and Program Evaluation Approaches to Evaluating Policy
J J Heckman , NBER 16110, June
This paper compares the structural approach to economic policy analysis with the program evaluation approach. It offers a third way to do policy analysis that combines the best features of both approaches. We illustrate the value of this alternative approach by making the implicit economics of LATE explicit, thereby extending the interpretability and range of policy questions that LATE can answer.
Building Bridges Between Structural and Program Evaluation Approaches to Evaluating Policy
J J Heckman , NBER 16110, June
This paper compares the structural approach to economic policy analysis with the program evaluation approach. It offers a third way to do policy analysis that combines the best features of both approaches. We illustrate the value of this alternative approach by making the implicit economics of LATE explicit, thereby extending the interpretability and range of policy questions that LATE can answer.
JEP Symposium on Causal Econometrics
The JEP symposium linked below discusses Angrist and Pischke's (AP) paper on IV and other experimental and quasi-experimental methods as key developments in modern microeconomics (the "taking the con out of econometrics" paper). I have put together a few slides on this and we will meet next Friday 2nd July at 11am in Geary boardroom to talk through the papers. This session will run till 1pm. It is completely informal and a chance for people working here to get their heads around the key issues in these crucial debates. It is not essential to read all of the papers in advance though it would be good to read the AP paper in detail and at least one of the other papers. I will put up two slides on each of the replies and attempt to summarise them.
JEP Symposium (requires subscription)
JEP Symposium (requires subscription)
Clustering standard errors
Using standard errors as taught to undergraduates can lead to incorrect inference if information is replicated in some way, such as applying GDP statistics to household-level data. Stata's useful cluster option is a common method of addressing this issue.
As much of the work produced by the Geary Institute is microeconometric in nature, researchers may be interested in two recent papers on the topic.
Andrew Gelman cites a paper that suggests cluster'ing is inadequate and that multi-level modelling should be preferred, while Barrios, Diamond, Imbens and Kolesar (2010) suggest researchers should also be wary of spatial correlations.
As much of the work produced by the Geary Institute is microeconometric in nature, researchers may be interested in two recent papers on the topic.
Andrew Gelman cites a paper that suggests cluster'ing is inadequate and that multi-level modelling should be preferred, while Barrios, Diamond, Imbens and Kolesar (2010) suggest researchers should also be wary of spatial correlations.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
The case for having more kids
Social science may suggest that kids drain their parents' happiness, but there's evidence that good parenting is less work and more fun than people think. Economist Bryan Caplan makes the case for having more children.
NBER: Behavioral Economics and Non-Market Valuation
How Can Behavioral Economics Inform Non-Market Valuation? An Example from the Preference Reversal Literature
Jonathan E. Alevy, John List, Wiktor Adamowicz
NBER Working Paper No. 16036
Issued in May 2010
NBER Program(s): PE
Psychological insights have made inroads within most major areas of study in economics. One area where less advance has been made is environmental and resource economics. In this study, we examine the implications of preference reversals over evaluation modes, in which stated economic values critically depend on whether the good is valued jointly with others or in isolation. The question arises because two commonly used methods for eliciting stated preferences differ in that one presents objects together and another presents objects to be evaluated in isolation. Beyond showing an example of the import of behavioral economics, our empirical evidence sheds new light on the factors associated with insensitivity of valuations to the scope of the good.
Jonathan E. Alevy, John List, Wiktor Adamowicz
NBER Working Paper No. 16036
Issued in May 2010
NBER Program(s): PE
Psychological insights have made inroads within most major areas of study in economics. One area where less advance has been made is environmental and resource economics. In this study, we examine the implications of preference reversals over evaluation modes, in which stated economic values critically depend on whether the good is valued jointly with others or in isolation. The question arises because two commonly used methods for eliciting stated preferences differ in that one presents objects together and another presents objects to be evaluated in isolation. Beyond showing an example of the import of behavioral economics, our empirical evidence sheds new light on the factors associated with insensitivity of valuations to the scope of the good.
Articles for Journal Clubs
We will be starting with journal clubs here for the summer pretty soon. I hope these journal clubs will allow us to discuss some of the most influential papers in social science, particularly from a methodological point of view. Also, we will focus on papers that have influence across several disciplines. My preliminary list is below and I really would like suggestions. We have covered some of these papers in the past but doing them again is really not a problem.
1. Gary King; Christopher J.L. Murray; Joshua A. Salomon; and Ajay Tandon. "Enhancing the Validity and Cross-cultural Comparability of Measurement in Survey Research ," American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 4 (December, 2003), 567-584; reprinted, with printing errors corrected, Vol. 98, No. 1 (February, 2004): 191-207.
2. Almond, Douglas (2006) “Is the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Over? Long-Term Effects of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post-1940 U.S. Population” Journal of Political Economy, v. 114, pp. 672–712.
4. Butz WP, Torrey BB Science. 2006 Jun 30;312(5782):1898-900. Some frontiers in social science.
1. Gary King; Christopher J.L. Murray; Joshua A. Salomon; and Ajay Tandon. "Enhancing the Validity and Cross-cultural Comparability of Measurement in Survey Research ," American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 4 (December, 2003), 567-584; reprinted, with printing errors corrected, Vol. 98, No. 1 (February, 2004): 191-207.
2. Almond, Douglas (2006) “Is the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Over? Long-Term Effects of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post-1940 U.S. Population” Journal of Political Economy, v. 114, pp. 672–712.
3. McClure, Samuel M., David Laibson, George Loewenstein and Jonathan D. Cohen. 2004. Separate Neural Systems Value Immediate and Delayed Monetary Rewards. Science (October):306.
5. Lex Borghans & Angela Lee Duckworth & James J. Heckman & Bas ter Weel, 2008. "The Economics and Psychology of Personality Traits," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(4).
6. James P Smith, 2009. "The Impact of Childhood Health on Adult Labor Market Outcomes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 478-489, 01.
7. Kahneman, D., Krueger, A. B., Schkade, D., Schwarz, N., & Stone, A. A. (2006). "A survey method of characterizing daily life experience: The Day Reconstruction Method." Science. (Full text : http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1776).
8. Angus S. Deaton, 2009. "Instruments of development: Randomization in the tropics, and the search for the elusive keys to economic development," NBER Working Papers14690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
9. List, John A., 2009. "An introduction to field experiments in economics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 439-442, June.
10. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2007. "The Economic Lives of the Poor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 141-168, Winter.
11. Richard H. Thaler & Shlomo Benartzi, 2004. "Save More Tomorrow (TM): Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages S164-S187, February.
12. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "A Psychological Perspective on Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 162-168, May.
One for internally. We are meeting tomorrow (Wednesday) at 2pm in the seminar to work through various activities for this summer. There are about a dozen people here on internships across various projects so we will discuss some activities such as STATA programming workshops, LatEX workshops and so on. Thanks to PhD researchers and others who have already volunteered to give sessions over the next few weeks and more suggestions welcome.
8. Angus S. Deaton, 2009. "Instruments of development: Randomization in the tropics, and the search for the elusive keys to economic development," NBER Working Papers14690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
9. List, John A., 2009. "An introduction to field experiments in economics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 439-442, June.
10. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2007. "The Economic Lives of the Poor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 141-168, Winter.
11. Richard H. Thaler & Shlomo Benartzi, 2004. "Save More Tomorrow (TM): Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages S164-S187, February.
12. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "A Psychological Perspective on Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 162-168, May.
One for internally. We are meeting tomorrow (Wednesday) at 2pm in the seminar to work through various activities for this summer. There are about a dozen people here on internships across various projects so we will discuss some activities such as STATA programming workshops, LatEX workshops and so on. Thanks to PhD researchers and others who have already volunteered to give sessions over the next few weeks and more suggestions welcome.
The Secret Powers of Time
RSA's animation of a Philip Zimbardo lecture on how perceptions of and attitudes to time affect behaviour.
Save if you're glad to be gay
There are a small number of papers on economic aspects of sexual orientation, mostly looking at the effects on earnings but there are also papers on patterns of home ownership and the division of labour within the household. A new paper looks at the effects on savings. The results are, perhaps, unsurprising but interesting nonetheless. Part of the effect may be due to the fact that homesexual couples are more likely to be cohabiting since marriage is not an option: essentially they have to have more precautionary savings. If civil partnership is introduced, as is being discussed in Ireland, this would presumably lessen this effect.
Sexual Orientation and Household Savings: Do Homosexual Couples Save More?
Negrusa, Brighita & Oreffice, Sonia
We analyze how sexual orientation is related to household savings using 2000 US Census data, and find that gay and lesbian couples own significantly more retirement income than heterosexuals, while cohabiting heterosexuals save more than their married counterparts. In a household savings model, we interpret this homosexual-specific differential as due to the extremely low fertility of same-sex couples, in addition to the precautionary motives driving cohabiting households to save more than married ones. Evidence from homeowners' ratio of mortgage payments to house value exhibits the same pattern of savings differentials by sexual orientation and cohabiting status.
Sexual Orientation and Household Savings: Do Homosexual Couples Save More?
Negrusa, Brighita & Oreffice, Sonia
We analyze how sexual orientation is related to household savings using 2000 US Census data, and find that gay and lesbian couples own significantly more retirement income than heterosexuals, while cohabiting heterosexuals save more than their married counterparts. In a household savings model, we interpret this homosexual-specific differential as due to the extremely low fertility of same-sex couples, in addition to the precautionary motives driving cohabiting households to save more than married ones. Evidence from homeowners' ratio of mortgage payments to house value exhibits the same pattern of savings differentials by sexual orientation and cohabiting status.
School resources and school quality
How we make schools better? More money, obviously.Or maybe not, this paper shows that it may be possible to improve school quality without additional financial resources.
Do School Resources Increase School Quality ?
Nadir Altanok
The aim of this paper is to verify whether school resource factors have an impact on the quality of education. This latter is measured with the help of a unique database on student scores in international skills tests. The general difficulties inherent in this type of study are the possibility of endogeneity bias and measurement errors. After estimation bias correction, we show that improvement in the quality of educational systems does not necessarily require an increase in school resources. When an alternative indicator of the performance of educational systems is used, our results are confirmed. Consequently, one should remain cautious about recommending purely financial measures to improve quality of education.
Do School Resources Increase School Quality ?
Nadir Altanok
The aim of this paper is to verify whether school resource factors have an impact on the quality of education. This latter is measured with the help of a unique database on student scores in international skills tests. The general difficulties inherent in this type of study are the possibility of endogeneity bias and measurement errors. After estimation bias correction, we show that improvement in the quality of educational systems does not necessarily require an increase in school resources. When an alternative indicator of the performance of educational systems is used, our results are confirmed. Consequently, one should remain cautious about recommending purely financial measures to improve quality of education.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Making Plans for Nigel
Couldn't resist. UCD students will be hearing this song for many years to come in behavioural economics lectures.
Has to be a contender one would have thought for the BE songs hall of fame.
"We're only making plans for Nigel
We only want what's best for him
We're only making plans for Nigel
Nigel just needs this helping hand"
PS: Due to the huge outpouring of grief at my termination of blogging activities (well one person said they vaguely missed the useful links), I will post up some stuff over the summer.
Has to be a contender one would have thought for the BE songs hall of fame.
"We're only making plans for Nigel
We only want what's best for him
We're only making plans for Nigel
Nigel just needs this helping hand"
PS: Due to the huge outpouring of grief at my termination of blogging activities (well one person said they vaguely missed the useful links), I will post up some stuff over the summer.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Widening Participation in Higher Education
New IZA working paper on this topic:
Widening Participation in Higher Education: Analysis Using Linked Administrative Data
Authors: Haroon Chowdry, Claire Crawford, Lorraine Dearden, Alissa Goodman, Anna Vignoles
Abstract:
This paper makes use of newly linked administrative data to better understand the determinants of higher education participation amongst individuals from socio-economically disadvantaged backgrounds. It is unique in being able to follow two cohorts of students in England – those who took GCSEs in 2001-02 and 2002-03 – from age 11 to age 20. The findings suggest that while there remain large raw gaps in HE participation (and participation at high-status universities) by socio-economic status, these differences are substantially reduced once controls for prior attainment are included. Moreover, these findings hold for both state and private school students. This suggests that poor attainment in secondary schools is more important in explaining lower HE participation rates amongst students from disadvantaged backgrounds than barriers arising at the point of entry into HE. These findings highlight the need for earlier policy intervention to raise HE participation rates amongst disadvantaged youth.
http://ftp.iza.org/dp4991.pdf
Widening Participation in Higher Education: Analysis Using Linked Administrative Data
Authors: Haroon Chowdry, Claire Crawford, Lorraine Dearden, Alissa Goodman, Anna Vignoles
Abstract:
This paper makes use of newly linked administrative data to better understand the determinants of higher education participation amongst individuals from socio-economically disadvantaged backgrounds. It is unique in being able to follow two cohorts of students in England – those who took GCSEs in 2001-02 and 2002-03 – from age 11 to age 20. The findings suggest that while there remain large raw gaps in HE participation (and participation at high-status universities) by socio-economic status, these differences are substantially reduced once controls for prior attainment are included. Moreover, these findings hold for both state and private school students. This suggests that poor attainment in secondary schools is more important in explaining lower HE participation rates amongst students from disadvantaged backgrounds than barriers arising at the point of entry into HE. These findings highlight the need for earlier policy intervention to raise HE participation rates amongst disadvantaged youth.
http://ftp.iza.org/dp4991.pdf
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Fairness and efficiency in university admission
My recent paper on the non-effect of fee abolition in Ireland emphasized the socio-economic gradient in secondary school attainment: low SES means low points and therefore a low probability of progressing to university. Fees are a side-issue, at best.
This problem is not unique to Ireland, of course: exactly the same pattern was described in a recent study for the UK. A recent book published by the Brookings Institution suggests ways of dealing with this issue in the US where there is a pronounced SES gradient in the SAT tests. One suggestion is for expanded use of affirmative action programs beyond their traditional emphasis on race. In essence, the idea is that universities take into account the fact that for some people doing well is harder and not because of their innate ability.
Access Programs here, like UCD's New ERA, do this although the scale is necessarily small, see here for an evaluation of its effectiveness we did at the Geary Institute. Some people might take the view that moving away from our simple points-based CAO application system would be messy and expensive. But, on the other hand, the present system is hardly efficient from a national point of view given that it means a huge chunk of our potential labour force is not getting the education that it needs to be at its most productive. Relative to the huge losses arising from not educating our population adequately (for evidence see here), the administrative costs are peanuts.
My own view is that making such adjustments at the point of progression i.e. adjusting the admission criteria to take account of SES, while worth pursuing, is not the best solution. We need to address the causes, not the symptoms of the problem. That is, we need to address the reasons for under-achievement at school level. Access programs do this too as do some government initiatives although their effects are largely unknown.
This problem is not unique to Ireland, of course: exactly the same pattern was described in a recent study for the UK. A recent book published by the Brookings Institution suggests ways of dealing with this issue in the US where there is a pronounced SES gradient in the SAT tests. One suggestion is for expanded use of affirmative action programs beyond their traditional emphasis on race. In essence, the idea is that universities take into account the fact that for some people doing well is harder and not because of their innate ability.
Access Programs here, like UCD's New ERA, do this although the scale is necessarily small, see here for an evaluation of its effectiveness we did at the Geary Institute. Some people might take the view that moving away from our simple points-based CAO application system would be messy and expensive. But, on the other hand, the present system is hardly efficient from a national point of view given that it means a huge chunk of our potential labour force is not getting the education that it needs to be at its most productive. Relative to the huge losses arising from not educating our population adequately (for evidence see here), the administrative costs are peanuts.
My own view is that making such adjustments at the point of progression i.e. adjusting the admission criteria to take account of SES, while worth pursuing, is not the best solution. We need to address the causes, not the symptoms of the problem. That is, we need to address the reasons for under-achievement at school level. Access programs do this too as do some government initiatives although their effects are largely unknown.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Productivity Commission
I am quite a fan of the work of the Productivity Commission in Australia and the public speeches by the Chairman of the Commission is always worth a look. This is a nice speech on the priorities for human capital policy planning in Oz - link here
Also look for the roundtable proceedings from a recent Commission event on evidence for policy - link here - which is a really interesting set of papers.
The Commission is an interesting beast - looks a little like NESC here but perhaps with more teeth??
Also look for the roundtable proceedings from a recent Commission event on evidence for policy - link here - which is a really interesting set of papers.
The Commission is an interesting beast - looks a little like NESC here but perhaps with more teeth??
Evidence on the goodness of economists
Does economics make you a nicer, better person? I know what you are thinking and I am inclined to agree but there is nothing like some good evidence. This paper looks at the association between economics study and pro-social behaviour including voter turnout and volunteering.
Is economics coursework, or majoring in economics, associated with different civic behaviors?
S Allgood, W Bosshardt,W an der Klaauw,M Watts
Studies regularly link levels of educational attainment to civic behavior and attitudes, but only a few investigate the role played by specific coursework. Using data collected from students who attended one of four public universities in our study, we investigate the relationship between economics coursework and civic behavior after graduation. Drawing from large samples of students in economics, business, or general majors, we compare responses across the three groups and by the number of undergraduate economics courses completed. We find that undergraduate coursework in economics is strongly associated with political party affiliation and with donations to candidates or parties, but not with the decision to vote or not vote. Nor is studying economics correlated with the likelihood (or intensity of) volunteerism.
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:450&r=edu
Is economics coursework, or majoring in economics, associated with different civic behaviors?
S Allgood, W Bosshardt,W an der Klaauw,M Watts
Studies regularly link levels of educational attainment to civic behavior and attitudes, but only a few investigate the role played by specific coursework. Using data collected from students who attended one of four public universities in our study, we investigate the relationship between economics coursework and civic behavior after graduation. Drawing from large samples of students in economics, business, or general majors, we compare responses across the three groups and by the number of undergraduate economics courses completed. We find that undergraduate coursework in economics is strongly associated with political party affiliation and with donations to candidates or parties, but not with the decision to vote or not vote. Nor is studying economics correlated with the likelihood (or intensity of) volunteerism.
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:450&r=edu
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